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Teteks vs Ohrid Prediction— Macedonia - Second League

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 14:30

Teteks

PPG 1.82 · HOME

LAST 5

DW ···

UPCOMING

Ohrid

PPG 1.87 · AWAY

LAST 5

WW ···

// Model verdict

BTTS 53% chance

Model probability 61.5% vs bookmaker-implied 49.0% — a clear edge.

+25.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-16.6%0-24.8%0-32.3%0-4+1.2%1 1-07.4%1-110.8%1-27.9%1-33.8%1-4+1.9%2 2-06.1%2-18.8%2-26.4%2-33.1%2-4+1.6%3 3-03.3%3-14.8%3-23.5%3-31.7%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.8%4+-22.1%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.1% 16.7% 6.00 +140.6%

Draw 24.1% 23.8% 4.20 +0.7%

Away win 35.7% 71.4% 1.40 -50.0%

Over 2.5 59.6% 57.1% 1.75 +4.3%

Over 3.5 36.4% 33.3% 3.00 +9.2%

BTTS 61.5% 49.0% 2.04 +25.5%

Home O1.5 48.1% — — —

Away O1.5 42.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 3 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 33%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob61.5%

H 40% / xG 1.6-1.5 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 1–2 7.9%

#4 2–0 6.1%

#5 1–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Teteks1.6

Ohrid1.5

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

TETEKS · PPG 1.82

OHRID · PPG 1.87

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

53%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.18 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Teteks (H) 40.1%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +140.6%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +0.7%

Ohrid (A) 35.7%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -50.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Teteks face Ohrid in Macedonia - Second League on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Teteks a 40% chance, the draw 24% and Ohrid 36%, so Teteks are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Teteks and 1.5 for Ohrid (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Teteks are averaging 1.82 points per game versus 1.87 for Ohrid. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +25.5%.

Teteks vs Ohrid Prediction— Macedonia - Second League

Match Preview & Prediction

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