Today / Macedonia - Second League / Ohrid vs Kozuv Gevgelija

Ohrid vs Kozuv Gevgelija Prediction— Macedonia - Second League

Matchday 3 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 14:45

Ohrid

PPG 2.28 · HOME

LAST 5

WW ···

5 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Kozuv Gevgelija

PPG 1.23 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWL ··

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

xG gap +0.66 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-16.5%0-23.5%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-010.4%1-111.2%1-26.0%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.0%2-19.7%2-25.3%2-31.9%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.2%3-15.6%3-23.0%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.4%4+-13.6%4+-22.0%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.2% 82.0% 1.22 -37.5%

Draw 25.0% 21.1% 4.75 +11.3%

Away win 23.8% 10.0% 10.00 +82.8%

Over 2.5 51.9% 55.6% 1.80 -6.6%

Over 3.5 31.5% 34.5% 2.90 -8.6%

BTTS 52.7% 42.2% 2.37 +24.9%

Home O1.5 48.9% — — —

Away O1.5 32.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 3 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 33%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.7%

H 51% / xG 1.7-1.1 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 9.0%

#4 1–0 10.4%

#5 0–0 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ohrid1.7

Kozuv Gevgelija1.1

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

OHRID · PPG 2.28

KOZUV GEVGELIJA · PPG 1.23

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.66 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Ohrid (H) 51.2%

ODDS 1.22 · IMPLIED 82.0% EV -37.5%

Draw 25.0%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +11.3%

Kozuv Gevgelija (A) 23.8%

ODDS 10.00 · IMPLIED 10.0% EV +82.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ohrid face Kozuv Gevgelija in Macedonia - Second League on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ohrid a 51% chance, the draw 25% and Kozuv Gevgelija 24%, so Ohrid are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Ohrid and 1.1 for Kozuv Gevgelija (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ohrid are averaging 2.28 points per game versus 1.23 for Kozuv Gevgelija. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +24.9%. This match finished 5-1.

Ohrid vs Kozuv Gevgelija Prediction— Macedonia - Second League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Macedonia - Second League Predictions