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ÍF II vs Hoyvík Prediction— Faroe-Islands - 1. Deild

Matchday 22 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 16:30

ÍF II

PPG 1.44 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWWL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Hoyvík

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 76% chance

Combined xG of 6.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 83.0% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5% — a clear edge.

+12.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.2%0-10.4%0-20.3%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-00.8%1-11.5%1-21.4%1-30.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-01.8%2-13.4%2-23.2%2-32.0%2-4+1.4%3 3-02.7%3-15.0%3-24.7%3-32.9%3-4+2.0%4+ 4+-010.1%4+-118.7%4+-217.3%4+-310.7%4+-4+7.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 71.7% 67.6% 1.48 +6.1%

Draw 14.2% 22.2% 4.50 -21.7%

Away win 14.1% 21.1% 4.75 -19.8%

Over 2.5 83.0% 73.5% 1.36 +12.9%

Over 3.5 70.3% 53.8% 1.86 +30.8%

BTTS 69.7% 69.9% 1.43 -0.3%

Home O1.5 78.3% 73.5% 1.36 +6.5%

Away O1.5 58.3% 39.4% 2.54 +48.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 80%

O2.5 87%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 27%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 67%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)4.4 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob69.7%

H 72% / xG 4.4-1.9 / O2.5 83% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 4–1 5.6%

#2 4–2 5.1%

#3 3–1 5.0%

#4 5–1 4.9%

#5 2–2 3.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

ÍF II4.4

Hoyvík1.9

COMBINED 6.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 83.0% · O3.5 PROB 70.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ÍF II · PPG 1.44

HOYVÍK · PPG 1.00

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

Chance this pick lands

76%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.57 for Home, form 1.44 vs 1.00 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

ÍF II (H) 71.7%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV +6.1%

Draw 14.2%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -21.7%

Hoyvík (A) 14.1%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV -19.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

ÍF II face Hoyvík in Faroe-Islands - 1. Deild on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives ÍF II a 72% chance, the draw 14% and Hoyvík 14%, so ÍF II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 4.4 for ÍF II and 1.9 for Hoyvík (6.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 4-1. There is a 83% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, ÍF II are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 1.00 for Hoyvík. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +69.9%. This match finished 1-2.

ÍF II vs Hoyvík Prediction— Faroe-Islands - 1. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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