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GOR Mahia vs Murang'a SEAL Prediction— Kenya - FKF Premier League

Matchday 1 ·Tuesday, September 1, 2026, 13:00

GOR Mahia

PPG 1.71 · HOME

UPCOMING

Murang'a SEAL

PPG 1.34 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.7%0-112.6%0-26.3%0-32.1%0-4+0.6%1 1-013.6%1-113.5%1-26.7%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-07.2%2-17.2%2-23.6%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-02.6%3-12.6%3-21.3%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-10.9%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.4% 74.1% 1.35 -46.8%

Draw 29.9% 25.6% 3.90 +10.0%

Away win 30.7% 11.8% 8.50 +160.9%

Over 2.5 42.7% 45.5% 2.20 -6.1%

Over 3.5 20.9% 28.6% 3.50 -16.1%

BTTS 48.7% 41.7% 2.40 +16.9%

Home O1.5 30.8% 61.0% 1.64 -49.5%

Away O1.5 29.7% 12.7% 7.90 +80.8%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.7%

D 30% / xG 1.1-1.0 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.5%

#2 1–0 13.6%

#3 0–0 12.7%

#4 0–1 12.6%

#5 2–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

GOR Mahia1.1

Murang'a SEAL1.0

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 20.9%

Form & verdict PPG

GOR MAHIA · PPG 1.71

MURANG'A SEAL · PPG 1.34

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.07, combined xG 2.06 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

GOR Mahia (H) 39.4%

ODDS 1.35 · IMPLIED 74.1% EV -46.8%

Draw 29.9%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +10.0%

Murang'a SEAL (A) 30.7%

ODDS 8.50 · IMPLIED 11.8% EV +160.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

GOR Mahia face Murang'a SEAL in Kenya - FKF Premier League on Tuesday, September 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives GOR Mahia a 39% chance, the draw 30% and Murang'a SEAL 31%, so GOR Mahia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for GOR Mahia and 1.0 for Murang'a SEAL (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, GOR Mahia are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 1.34 for Murang'a SEAL. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +82.7%.

GOR Mahia vs Murang'a SEAL Prediction— Kenya - FKF Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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