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Ulinzi Stars vs Tusker Prediction— Kenya - FKF Premier League

Matchday 1 ·Tuesday, September 1, 2026, 12:00

Ulinzi Stars

PPG 1.21 · HOME

UPCOMING

Tusker

PPG 1.36 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.2%0-112.0%0-26.4%0-32.3%0-4+0.8%1 1-012.6%1-113.4%1-27.1%1-32.5%1-4+0.8%2 2-07.1%2-17.5%2-24.0%2-31.4%2-4+0.5%3 3-02.6%3-12.8%3-21.5%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.0%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.2% 39.2% 2.55 -2.6%

Draw 27.7% 35.7% 2.80 -13.5%

Away win 34.1% 37.0% 2.70 -7.9%

Over 2.5 44.5% 36.4% 2.75 +22.4%

Over 3.5 25.5% — — —

BTTS 50.0% — — —

Home O1.5 31.2% — — —

Away O1.5 32.5% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob50.0%

H 38% / xG 1.1-1.1 / U2.5 44% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 1–0 12.6%

#3 0–0 11.2%

#4 0–1 12.0%

#5 2–1 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ulinzi Stars1.1

Tusker1.1

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.5% · O3.5 PROB 25.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ULINZI STARS · PPG 1.21

TUSKER · PPG 1.36

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.06, combined xG 2.19 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Ulinzi Stars (H) 38.2%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -2.6%

Draw 27.7%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -13.5%

Tusker (A) 34.1%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -7.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ulinzi Stars face Tusker in Kenya - FKF Premier League on Tuesday, September 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ulinzi Stars a 38% chance, the draw 28% and Tusker 34%, so Ulinzi Stars are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Ulinzi Stars and 1.1 for Tusker (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ulinzi Stars are averaging 1.21 points per game versus 1.36 for Tusker. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +22.4%.

Ulinzi Stars vs Tusker Prediction— Kenya - FKF Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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