Today / Kenya - FKF Premier League / Mathare United vs APS Bomet

Mathare United vs APS Bomet Prediction— Kenya - FKF Premier League

Matchday 1 ·Monday, August 31, 2026, 12:00

Mathare United

PPG 1.36 · HOME

UPCOMING

APS Bomet

PPG 1.52 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.2%0-112.5%0-26.4%0-32.2%0-4+0.7%1 1-013.1%1-113.5%1-26.9%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-07.1%2-17.3%2-23.7%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-02.6%3-12.6%3-21.3%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-10.9%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.1% 38.2% 2.62 -0.2%

Draw 28.0% 40.0% 2.50 -18.0%

Away win 33.9% 35.7% 2.80 -5.1%

Over 2.5 43.5% 40.0% 2.50 +8.8%

Over 3.5 22.0% 18.2% 5.50 +12.6%

BTTS 49.2% 48.8% 2.05 +0.9%

Home O1.5 30.9% 30.5% 3.28 +1.4%

Away O1.5 32.6% 29.2% 3.42 +11.5%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob49.2%

D 28% / xG 1.1-1.0 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.5%

#2 1–0 13.1%

#3 0–0 12.2%

#4 0–1 12.5%

#5 2–1 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mathare United1.1

APS Bomet1.0

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.5% · O3.5 PROB 22.0%

Form & verdict PPG

MATHARE UNITED · PPG 1.36

APS BOMET · PPG 1.52

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.05, combined xG 2.11 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Mathare United (H) 38.1%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -0.2%

Draw 28.0%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -18.0%

APS Bomet (A) 33.9%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -5.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mathare United face APS Bomet in Kenya - FKF Premier League on Monday, August 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mathare United a 38% chance, the draw 28% and APS Bomet 34%, so Mathare United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Mathare United and 1.0 for APS Bomet (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mathare United are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 1.52 for APS Bomet. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +12.6%.

Mathare United vs APS Bomet Prediction— Kenya - FKF Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Kenya - FKF Premier League Predictions