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Maroons vs URA Prediction— Uganda - Premier League

Matchday 1 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 13:00

Maroons

PPG 1.61 · HOME

LAST 5

L ····

1 – 2

FULL TIME

URA

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

W ····

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.2%0-110.7%0-24.3%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-016.0%1-113.0%1-25.3%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-09.7%2-17.9%2-23.2%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.0%3-13.2%3-21.3%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.3%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.0% — — —

Draw 27.9% — — —

Away win 25.1% — — —

Over 2.5 43.1% — — —

Over 3.5 20.7% — — —

BTTS 47.2% — — —

Home O1.5 32.9% — — —

Away O1.5 23.5% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.0%

#2 0–0 13.2%

#3 1–1 13.0%

#4 2–0 9.7%

#5 0–1 10.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Maroons1.2

URA0.8

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.1% · O3.5 PROB 20.7%

Form & verdict PPG

MAROONS · PPG 1.61

URA · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.41, combined xG 2.03 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Maroons (H) 47.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

URA (A) 25.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Maroons face URA in Uganda - Premier League on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Maroons a 47% chance, the draw 28% and URA 25%, so Maroons are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Maroons and 0.8 for URA (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Maroons are averaging 1.61 points per game versus 1.00 for URA. This match finished 1-2.

Maroons vs URA Prediction— Uganda - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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