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Entebbe UPPC vs UPDF Prediction— Uganda - Premier League

Matchday 2 ·Tuesday, September 1, 2026, 13:00

Entebbe UPPC

PPG 1.65 · HOME

LAST 5

WW ···

2 – 1

FULL TIME

UPDF

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

DL ···

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.3%0-19.8%0-23.3%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-018.0%1-112.3%1-24.2%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.4%2-17.8%2-22.7%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.8%3-13.3%3-21.1%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-11.4%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.5% 61.7% 1.62 -27.9%

Draw 34.2% 30.3% 3.30 +12.9%

Away win 21.3% 19.0% 5.25 +7.1%

Over 2.5 37.4% 42.6% 2.35 -12.1%

Over 3.5 18.5% — — —

BTTS 42.4% — — —

Home O1.5 38.1% — — —

Away O1.5 18.8% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob42.4%

H 44% / xG 1.3-0.7 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.3%

#2 1–0 18.0%

#3 1–1 12.3%

#4 2–0 11.4%

#5 0–1 9.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Entebbe UPPC1.3

UPDF0.7

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.4% · O3.5 PROB 18.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ENTEBBE UPPC · PPG 1.65

UPDF · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.58 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Entebbe UPPC (H) 44.5%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -27.9%

Draw 34.2%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +12.9%

UPDF (A) 21.3%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV +7.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Entebbe UPPC face UPDF in Uganda - Premier League on Tuesday, September 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Entebbe UPPC a 45% chance, the draw 34% and UPDF 21%, so Entebbe UPPC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Entebbe UPPC and 0.7 for UPDF (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Entebbe UPPC are averaging 1.65 points per game versus 1.00 for UPDF. This match finished 2-1.

Entebbe UPPC vs UPDF Prediction— Uganda - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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