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NEC vs Lugazi Prediction— Uganda - Premier League

Matchday 2 ·Tuesday, September 1, 2026, 13:00

NEC

PPG 1.69 · HOME

LAST 5

WW ···

3 – 1

FULL TIME

Lugazi

PPG 0.91 · AWAY

LAST 5

WL ···

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.3%0-19.8%0-23.4%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-018.0%1-112.4%1-24.2%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.3%2-17.8%2-22.7%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.7%3-13.3%3-21.1%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-11.3%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.0% 67.6% 1.48 -31.9%

Draw 31.6% 28.6% 3.50 +10.6%

Away win 22.5% 16.0% 6.25 +24.4%

Over 2.5 38.7% 42.6% 2.35 -9.0%

Over 3.5 18.5% — — —

BTTS 42.4% — — —

Home O1.5 37.4% — — —

Away O1.5 18.8% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob42.4%

H 46% / xG 1.3-0.7 / U2.5 39% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.0%

#2 0–0 14.3%

#3 1–1 12.4%

#4 2–0 11.3%

#5 0–1 9.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

NEC1.3

Lugazi0.7

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.7% · O3.5 PROB 18.5%

Form & verdict PPG

NEC · PPG 1.69

LUGAZI · PPG 0.91

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.57 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

NEC (H) 46.0%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -31.9%

Draw 31.6%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +10.6%

Lugazi (A) 22.5%

ODDS 6.25 · IMPLIED 16.0% EV +24.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

NEC face Lugazi in Uganda - Premier League on Tuesday, September 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives NEC a 46% chance, the draw 32% and Lugazi 23%, so NEC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for NEC and 0.7 for Lugazi (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, NEC are averaging 1.69 points per game versus 0.91 for Lugazi. This match finished 3-1.

NEC vs Lugazi Prediction— Uganda - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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