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BUL vs Express Prediction— Uganda - Premier League

Matchday 1 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 13:00

BUL

PPG 1.30 · HOME

LAST 5

W ····

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Express

PPG 1.04 · AWAY

LAST 5

L ····

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.6%0-111.7%0-24.4%0-31.1%0-4+0.2%1 1-017.3%1-113.0%1-24.9%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-09.6%2-17.2%2-22.7%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-03.6%3-12.7%3-21.0%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-10.9%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.1% — — —

Draw 31.7% — — —

Away win 24.1% — — —

Over 2.5 37.8% — — —

Over 3.5 18.0% — — —

BTTS 47.2% — — —

Home O1.5 31.0% — — —

Away O1.5 19.6% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 17.3%

#2 0–0 15.6%

#3 1–1 13.0%

#4 0–1 11.7%

#5 2–0 9.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

BUL1.1

Express0.7

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.8% · O3.5 PROB 18.0%

Form & verdict PPG

BUL · PPG 1.30

EXPRESS · PPG 1.04

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.36, combined xG 1.86 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

BUL (H) 44.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 31.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Express (A) 24.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

BUL face Express in Uganda - Premier League on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives BUL a 44% chance, the draw 32% and Express 24%, so BUL are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for BUL and 0.7 for Express (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, BUL are averaging 1.30 points per game versus 1.04 for Express. This match finished 1-0.

BUL vs Express Prediction— Uganda - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Uganda - Premier League Predictions