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SC Villa vs Kitara Prediction— Uganda - Premier League

Matchday 1 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 13:00

SC Villa

PPG 2.04 · HOME

LAST 5

D ····

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Kitara

PPG 1.48 · AWAY

LAST 5

D ····

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +0.41, combined xG 2.06 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.8%0-110.5%0-24.3%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-015.8%1-113.0%1-25.3%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.7%2-18.0%2-23.3%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.0%3-13.3%3-21.4%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.3%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.1% — — —

Draw 27.8% — — —

Away win 25.1% — — —

Over 2.5 43.1% — — —

Over 3.5 20.7% — — —

BTTS 47.2% — — —

Home O1.5 34.0% — — —

Away O1.5 23.5% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.8%

#2 1–1✓ 13.0%

#3 0–0 12.8%

#4 2–0 9.7%

#5 0–1 10.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

SC Villa1.2

Kitara0.8

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.1% · O3.5 PROB 20.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SC VILLA · PPG 2.04

KITARA · PPG 1.48

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.41, combined xG 2.06 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

SC Villa (H) 47.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Kitara (A) 25.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

SC Villa face Kitara in Uganda - Premier League on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SC Villa a 47% chance, the draw 28% and Kitara 25%, so SC Villa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for SC Villa and 0.8 for Kitara (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SC Villa are averaging 2.04 points per game versus 1.48 for Kitara. This match finished 1-1.

SC Villa vs Kitara Prediction— Uganda - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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