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Police vs Mbarara City Prediction— Uganda - Premier League

Matchday 1 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 13:00

Police

PPG 1.82 · HOME

LAST 5

W ····

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Mbarara City

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

L ····

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +0.41, combined xG 2.01 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.4%0-110.7%0-24.3%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-016.2%1-113.0%1-25.2%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-09.8%2-17.9%2-23.1%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.0%3-13.2%3-21.3%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.2%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.2% — — —

Draw 27.9% — — —

Away win 24.9% — — —

Over 2.5 43.1% — — —

Over 3.5 20.7% — — —

BTTS 47.2% — — —

Home O1.5 32.6% — — —

Away O1.5 23.5% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 16.2%

#2 0–0 13.4%

#3 1–1 13.0%

#4 2–0 9.8%

#5 0–1 10.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Police1.2

Mbarara City0.8

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.1% · O3.5 PROB 20.7%

Form & verdict PPG

POLICE · PPG 1.82

MBARARA CITY · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.41, combined xG 2.01 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Police (H) 47.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Mbarara City (A) 24.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Police face Mbarara City in Uganda - Premier League on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Police a 47% chance, the draw 28% and Mbarara City 25%, so Police are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Police and 0.8 for Mbarara City (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Police are averaging 1.82 points per game versus 1.00 for Mbarara City. This match finished 1-0.

Police vs Mbarara City Prediction— Uganda - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Uganda - Premier League Predictions