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KCCA vs NEC Prediction— Uganda - Premier League

Matchday 1 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 13:00

KCCA

PPG 2.17 · HOME

LAST 5

L ····

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

NEC

PPG 1.52 · AWAY

LAST 5

WW ···

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +0.42, combined xG 2.07 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.6%0-110.4%0-24.3%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-015.7%1-113.0%1-25.4%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.8%2-18.1%2-23.3%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.0%3-13.3%3-21.4%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.4%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.3% — — —

Draw 27.7% — — —

Away win 25.0% — — —

Over 2.5 43.1% — — —

Over 3.5 20.7% — — —

BTTS 47.2% — — —

Home O1.5 35.0% — — —

Away O1.5 23.5% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.7%

#2 1–1 13.0%

#3 0–0 12.6%

#4 2–0 9.8%

#5 0–1 10.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

KCCA1.2

NEC0.8

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.1% · O3.5 PROB 20.7%

Form & verdict PPG

KCCA · PPG 2.17

NEC · PPG 1.52

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.42, combined xG 2.07 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

KCCA (H) 47.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

NEC (A) 25.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

KCCA face NEC in Uganda - Premier League on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives KCCA a 47% chance, the draw 28% and NEC 25%, so KCCA are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for KCCA and 0.8 for NEC (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, KCCA are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 1.52 for NEC. This match finished 0-2.

KCCA vs NEC Prediction— Uganda - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Uganda - Premier League Predictions