Today / Macedonia - Second League / Osogovo vs Novaci

Osogovo vs Novaci Prediction— Macedonia - Second League

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 14:45

Osogovo

PPG 1.78 · HOME

LAST 5

LLD ··

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Novaci

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLD ··

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.48 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-17.3%0-24.1%0-31.5%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.5%1-111.8%1-26.6%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.4%2-19.5%2-25.3%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.5%3-15.1%3-22.8%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-12.9%4+-21.6%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.9% — — —

Draw 26.6% — — —

Away win 27.5% — — —

Over 2.5 50.5% — — —

Over 3.5 30.5% — — —

BTTS 52.7% — — —

Home O1.5 48.5% — — —

Away O1.5 33.0% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 3 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 33%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–0 10.5%

#4 2–0 8.4%

#5 0–0✓ 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Osogovo1.6

Novaci1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 30.5%

Form & verdict PPG

OSOGOVO · PPG 1.78

NOVACI · PPG 1.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.48 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Osogovo (H) 45.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Novaci (A) 27.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Osogovo face Novaci in Macedonia - Second League on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Osogovo a 46% chance, the draw 27% and Novaci 28%, so Osogovo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Osogovo and 1.1 for Novaci (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Osogovo are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 1.20 for Novaci. This match finished 0-0.

Osogovo vs Novaci Prediction— Macedonia - Second League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Macedonia - Second League Predictions