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Kozlovice vs Šternberk Prediction— Czech-Republic - 4. liga - Divizie E

Group E · Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 14:30

Kozlovice

PPG 2.29 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWW ·

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Šternberk

PPG 0.90 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLW ·

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

xG gap +1.95 for Home, form 2.29 vs 0.90 - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.8%0-11.9%0-21.0%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-05.3%1-15.5%1-22.9%1-31.0%1-4+0.3%2 2-08.0%2-18.3%2-24.3%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-08.0%3-18.2%3-24.3%3-31.5%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-012.4%4+-112.9%4+-26.7%4+-32.3%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 68.0% — — —

Draw 16.2% — — —

Away win 15.9% — — —

Over 2.5 67.3% — — —

Over 3.5 45.1% — — —

BTTS 60.5% — — —

Home O1.5 78.4% — — —

Away O1.5 32.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 11 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 82%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 18%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.3%

#2 3–1 8.2%

#3 2–0 8.0%

#4 3–0 8.0%

#5 1–1 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kozlovice3.0

Šternberk1.0

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 45.1%

Form & verdict PPG

KOZLOVICE · PPG 2.29

ŠTERNBERK · PPG 0.90

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.95 for Home, form 2.29 vs 0.90 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Kozlovice (H) 68.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 16.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Šternberk (A) 15.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Kozlovice face Šternberk in Czech-Republic - 4. liga - Divizie E on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kozlovice a 68% chance, the draw 16% and Šternberk 16%, so Kozlovice are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.0 for Kozlovice and 1.0 for Šternberk (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kozlovice are averaging 2.29 points per game versus 0.90 for Šternberk. This match finished 1-0.

Kozlovice vs Šternberk Prediction— Czech-Republic - 4. liga - Divizie E

Match Preview & Prediction

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