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Strání vs Nové Sady Prediction— Czech-Republic - 4. liga - Divizie E

Group E · Matchday 5 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 15:30

Strání

PPG 1.92 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWW ·

9 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Nové Sady

PPG 0.98 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLL ·

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 77.3% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.3%0-11.4%0-20.7%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-04.4%1-14.5%1-22.2%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-07.3%2-17.4%2-23.7%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-08.1%3-18.1%3-24.1%3-31.4%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-015.4%4+-115.5%4+-27.8%4+-32.6%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 73.5% 76.9% 1.30 -4.5%

Draw 15.5% 19.0% 5.25 -11.2%

Away win 11.0% 15.4% 6.50 -17.1%

Over 2.5 72.0% 73.5% 1.36 -2.1%

Over 3.5 51.7% 50.0% 2.00 +3.4%

BTTS 60.8% 59.5% 1.68 +2.1%

Home O1.5 77.3% 80.0% 1.25 -3.4%

Away O1.5 31.7% 26.3% 3.80 +20.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 11 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 82%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 18%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 72%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 9-0

xG (home)3.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob60.8%

H 74% / xG 3.3-1.0 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 8.1%

#2 3–0 8.1%

#3 2–1 7.4%

#4 2–0 7.3%

#5 1–1 4.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Strání3.3

Nové Sady1.0

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.0% · O3.5 PROB 51.7%

Form & verdict PPG

STRÁNÍ · PPG 1.92

NOVÉ SADY · PPG 0.98

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.30 for Home, form 1.92 vs 0.98 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Strání (H) 73.5%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV -4.5%

Draw 15.5%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV -11.2%

Nové Sady (A) 11.0%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV -17.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Strání face Nové Sady in Czech-Republic - 4. liga - Divizie E on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Strání a 74% chance, the draw 16% and Nové Sady 11%, so Strání are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.3 for Strání and 1.0 for Nové Sady (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Strání are averaging 1.92 points per game versus 0.98 for Nové Sady. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +20.5%. This match finished 9-0.

Strání vs Nové Sady Prediction— Czech-Republic - 4. liga - Divizie E

Match Preview & Prediction

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