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HB Torshavn vs NSI Runavik Prediction— FaroeIslands - Premier League

Matchday 17 ·Monday, August 3, 2026, 17:30

HB Torshavn

PPG 1.29 · HOME

UPCOMING

NSI Runavik

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.1% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+9.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-15.9%0-25.3%0-33.2%0-4+2.1%1 1-05.3%1-19.5%1-28.6%1-35.1%1-4+3.5%2 2-04.3%2-17.7%2-27.0%2-34.2%2-4+2.8%3 3-02.3%3-14.2%3-23.8%3-32.3%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-12.4%4+-22.2%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.0% 40.8% 2.45 -2.0%

Draw 22.2% 27.8% 3.60 -12.0%

Away win 37.8% 41.7% 2.40 -9.3%

Over 2.5 64.1% 58.8% 1.70 +9.0%

Over 3.5 42.8% 36.4% 2.75 +17.7%

BTTS 63.5% 63.7% 1.57 -0.3%

Home O1.5 49.4% 47.6% 2.10 +3.7%

Away O1.5 48.0% 47.6% 2.10 +0.8%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 47%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob63.5%

A 38% / xG 1.6-1.8 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.5%

#2 1–2 8.6%

#3 2–1 7.7%

#4 2–2 7.0%

#5 0–2 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

HB Torshavn1.6

NSI Runavik1.8

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.1% · O3.5 PROB 42.8%

Form & verdict PPG

HB TORSHAVN · PPG 1.29

NSI RUNAVIK · PPG 1.50

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.18 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

HB Torshavn (H) 40.0%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -2.0%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -12.0%

NSI Runavik (A) 37.8%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -9.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

HB Torshavn face NSI Runavik in FaroeIslands - Premier League on Monday, August 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives HB Torshavn a 40% chance, the draw 22% and NSI Runavik 38%, so HB Torshavn are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for HB Torshavn and 1.8 for NSI Runavik (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, HB Torshavn are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 1.50 for NSI Runavik. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +17.7%.

HB Torshavn vs NSI Runavik Prediction— FaroeIslands - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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