Today / FaroeIslands - Premier League / 07 Vestur vs HB Torshavn

07 Vestur vs HB Torshavn Prediction— FaroeIslands - Premier League

Regular Season - 16 ·Sunday, July 5, 2026, 14:00

07 Vestur

PPG 0.86 · HOME

UPCOMING

HB Torshavn

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.9% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-110.2%0-29.4%0-35.8%0-4+4.1%1 1-05.8%1-110.7%1-29.9%1-36.1%1-4+4.3%2 2-03.0%2-15.6%2-25.2%2-33.2%2-4+2.3%3 3-01.1%3-11.9%3-21.8%3-31.1%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.6%4+-20.6%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.7% 17.4% 5.75 +21.8%

Draw 23.9% 25.0% 4.00 -2.6%

Away win 52.4% 67.6% 1.48 -22.4%

Over 2.5 60.9% 63.7% 1.57 -4.4%

Over 3.5 37.1% 41.7% 2.40 -11.0%

BTTS 55.6% 61.7% 1.62 -9.9%

Home O1.5 35.2% 30.3% 3.30 +16.2%

Away O1.5 49.8% 67.6% 1.48 -26.3%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 49%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob55.6%

A 52% / xG 1.0-1.9 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 1–2 9.9%

#3 0–2 9.4%

#4 0–1 10.2%

#5 0–0 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

07 Vestur1.0

HB Torshavn1.9

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.9% · O3.5 PROB 37.1%

Form & verdict PPG

07 VESTUR · PPG 0.86

HB TORSHAVN · PPG 1.50

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.50) vs Home POOR (0.86)

Win probability 1X2

07 Vestur (H) 23.7%

ODDS 5.75 · IMPLIED 17.4% EV +21.8%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -2.6%

HB Torshavn (A) 52.4%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -22.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

07 Vestur face HB Torshavn in FaroeIslands - Premier League on Sunday, July 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives 07 Vestur a 24% chance, the draw 24% and HB Torshavn 52%, so HB Torshavn are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for 07 Vestur and 1.9 for HB Torshavn (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, 07 Vestur are averaging 0.86 points per game versus 1.50 for HB Torshavn. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +21.8%.