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Frýdek-Místek vs Hranice Prediction— Czech-Republic - 3. liga - MSFL

MSFL - 1 ·Friday, July 31, 2026, 16:00

Frýdek-Místek

PPG 1.82 · HOME

UPCOMING

Hranice

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-16.1%0-23.1%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-010.6%1-111.0%1-25.6%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.6%2-19.8%2-25.1%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.7%3-15.9%3-23.0%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-14.0%4+-22.0%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.0% 75.2% 1.33 -29.5%

Draw 23.6% 21.1% 4.75 +7.3%

Away win 23.3% 15.4% 6.50 +30.9%

Over 2.5 53.4% 63.7% 1.57 -16.2%

Over 3.5 32.4% 43.5% 2.30 -25.5%

BTTS 55.4% 55.6% 1.80 -0.3%

Home O1.5 49.4% 71.4% 1.40 -30.8%

Away O1.5 33.5% 24.1% 4.15 +39.0%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.4%

H 53% / xG 1.8-1.0 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 9.6%

#4 1–0 10.6%

#5 0–0 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Frýdek-Místek1.8

Hranice1.0

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.4%

Form & verdict PPG

FRÝDEK-MÍSTEK · PPG 1.82

HRANICE · PPG 1.17

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.77 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Frýdek-Místek (H) 53.0%

ODDS 1.33 · IMPLIED 75.2% EV -29.5%

Draw 23.6%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +7.3%

Hranice (A) 23.3%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV +30.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Frýdek-Místek face Hranice in Czech-Republic - 3. liga - MSFL on Friday, July 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Frýdek-Místek a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Hranice 23%, so Frýdek-Místek are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Frýdek-Místek and 1.0 for Hranice (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Frýdek-Místek are averaging 1.82 points per game versus 1.17 for Hranice. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +48.2%.

Frýdek-Místek vs Hranice Prediction— Czech-Republic - 3. liga - MSFL

Match Preview & Prediction

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