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Yarmouk vs Al Sahel Prediction— Kuwait - Division 1

Regular Season - 14 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 17:45

Yarmouk

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Al Sahel

PPG 3.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 63.3%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-111.1%0-28.4%0-34.2%0-4+2.2%1 1-08.1%1-112.2%1-29.2%1-34.7%1-4+2.5%2 2-04.4%2-16.7%2-25.1%2-32.6%2-4+1.4%3 3-01.6%3-12.5%3-21.9%3-30.9%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.9%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.2% 50.0% 2.00 -29.6%

Draw 24.6% 27.8% 3.60 -6.9%

Away win 40.2% 33.3% 3.00 +20.6%

Over 2.5 53.9% 57.8% 1.73 -6.8%

Over 3.5 34.6% 37.0% 2.70 -6.6%

BTTS 55.4% 63.3% 1.58 -12.5%

Home O1.5 35.0% 51.8% 1.93 -32.5%

Away O1.5 49.0% 40.3% 2.48 +21.5%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 27%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob55.4%

A 40% / xG 1.1-1.5 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 0–1 11.1%

#3 1–2 9.2%

#4 0–0 7.3%

#5 0–2 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Yarmouk1.1

Al Sahel1.5

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 34.6%

Form & verdict PPG

YARMOUK · PPG 2.00

AL SAHEL · PPG 3.00

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.41 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Yarmouk (H) 35.2%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -29.6%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -6.9%

Al Sahel (A) 40.2%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +20.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Yarmouk face Al Sahel in Kuwait - Division 1 on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Yarmouk a 35% chance, the draw 25% and Al Sahel 40%, so Al Sahel are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Yarmouk and 1.5 for Al Sahel (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Yarmouk are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 3.00 for Al Sahel. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +21.5%.

Yarmouk vs Al Sahel Prediction— Kuwait - Division 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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