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Cardoso Moreira vs Búzios Prediction— Brazil - Carioca C

Final ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 17:45

Cardoso Moreira

PPG 2.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

Búzios

PPG 2.33 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-018.1%0-111.7%0-23.8%0-30.8%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.3%1-112.4%1-24.0%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-010.3%2-16.6%2-22.1%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-03.6%3-12.4%3-20.8%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-10.8%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.8% — — —

Draw 30.5% — — —

Away win 23.6% — — —

Over 2.5 43.4% — — —

Over 3.5 23.2% — — —

BTTS 48.5% — — —

Home O1.5 35.0% — — —

Away O1.5 19.8% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob48.5%

H 46% / xG 1.1-0.6 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 18.1%

#2 1–0 19.3%

#3 1–1 12.4%

#4 2–0 10.3%

#5 0–1 11.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cardoso Moreira1.1

Búzios0.6

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.4% · O3.5 PROB 23.2%

Form & verdict PPG

CARDOSO MOREIRA · PPG 2.67

BÚZIOS · PPG 2.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.42, combined xG 1.71 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Cardoso Moreira (H) 45.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 30.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Búzios (A) 23.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Cardoso Moreira face Búzios in Brazil - Carioca C on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cardoso Moreira a 46% chance, the draw 31% and Búzios 24%, so Cardoso Moreira are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Cardoso Moreira and 0.6 for Búzios (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cardoso Moreira are averaging 2.67 points per game versus 2.33 for Búzios.

Cardoso Moreira vs Búzios Prediction— Brazil - Carioca C

Match Preview & Prediction

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