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Barra Mansa vs Búzios Prediction— Brazil - Carioca C

Semi-finals ·Thursday, July 23, 2026, 17:45

Barra Mansa

PPG 1.60 · HOME

LAST 5

DDDLL

0 – 2

FULL TIME

Búzios

PPG 2.20 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWWL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.5%0-117.0%0-210.8%0-34.5%0-4+1.9%1 1-010.0%1-112.6%1-28.0%1-33.4%1-4+1.4%2 2-03.7%2-14.7%2-22.9%2-31.2%2-4+0.5%3 3-00.9%3-11.2%3-20.7%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.2%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.6% 57.1% 1.75 -35.2%

Draw 28.2% 29.4% 3.40 -2.5%

Away win 48.2% 25.0% 4.00 +92.8%

Over 2.5 46.8% 50.0% 2.00 -6.4%

Over 3.5 28.7% 30.5% 3.28 -3.5%

BTTS 48.5% 54.9% 1.82 -11.7%

Home O1.5 33.3% 52.6% 1.90 -36.7%

Away O1.5 37.0% 28.6% 3.50 +29.5%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 31%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob48.5%

A 48% / xG 0.7-1.3 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 13.5%

#2 0–1 17.0%

#3 1–1 12.6%

#4 0–2✓ 10.8%

#5 1–0 10.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Barra Mansa0.7

Búzios1.3

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.8% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

BARRA MANSA · PPG 1.60

BÚZIOS · PPG 2.20

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

Chance this pick lands

49%

DANGER

xG gap -0.52 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Barra Mansa (H) 23.6%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -35.2%

Draw 28.2%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -2.5%

Búzios (A) 48.2%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +92.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Barra Mansa face Búzios in Brazil - Carioca C on Thursday, July 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Barra Mansa a 24% chance, the draw 28% and Búzios 48%, so Búzios are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Barra Mansa and 1.3 for Búzios (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Barra Mansa are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 2.20 for Búzios. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +29.5%. This match finished 0-2.