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Campos AA vs Cardoso Moreira Prediction— Brazil - Carioca C

Semi-finals ·Thursday, July 23, 2026, 17:45

Campos AA

PPG 2.60 · HOME

UPCOMING

Cardoso Moreira

PPG 2.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.60), Away EXCELLENT (2.60)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.4%0-115.2%0-211.1%0-35.4%0-4+2.8%1 1-08.3%1-112.2%1-28.9%1-34.4%1-4+2.2%2 2-03.3%2-14.9%2-23.6%2-31.7%2-4+0.9%3 3-00.9%3-11.3%3-21.0%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.3%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.6% — — —

Draw 26.6% — — —

Away win 45.8% — — —

Over 2.5 50.0% — — —

Over 3.5 28.8% — — —

BTTS 52.0% — — —

Home O1.5 33.3% — — —

Away O1.5 48.9% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob52.0%

A 46% / xG 0.8-1.5 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 0–1 15.2%

#3 0–0 10.4%

#4 0–2 11.1%

#5 1–2 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Campos AA0.8

Cardoso Moreira1.5

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

CAMPOS AA · PPG 2.60

CARDOSO MOREIRA · PPG 2.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.60), Away EXCELLENT (2.60)

Win probability 1X2

Campos AA (H) 27.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Cardoso Moreira (A) 45.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Campos AA face Cardoso Moreira in Brazil - Carioca C on Thursday, July 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Campos AA a 28% chance, the draw 27% and Cardoso Moreira 46%, so Cardoso Moreira are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Campos AA and 1.5 for Cardoso Moreira (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Campos AA are averaging 2.60 points per game versus 2.60 for Cardoso Moreira.

Campos AA vs Cardoso Moreira Prediction— Brazil - Carioca C

Match Preview & Prediction

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