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Costa Brava vs Deportivo Rincon Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Regular Season - 18 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 18:30

Costa Brava

PPG 1.86 · HOME

UPCOMING

Deportivo Rincon

PPG 0.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +1.00 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.0%0-16.8%0-21.8%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-019.8%1-110.3%1-22.7%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-015.0%2-17.8%2-22.0%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-07.6%3-14.0%3-21.0%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-04.0%4+-12.1%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.8% — — —

Draw 25.2% — — —

Away win 18.0% — — —

Over 2.5 43.6% — — —

Over 3.5 23.0% — — —

BTTS 46.4% — — —

Home O1.5 46.3% — — —

Away O1.5 19.1% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 42%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob46.4%

H 57% / xG 1.5-0.5 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 19.8%

#2 2–0 15.0%

#3 0–0 13.0%

#4 1–1 10.3%

#5 2–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Costa Brava1.5

Deportivo Rincon0.5

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.6% · O3.5 PROB 23.0%

Form & verdict PPG

COSTA BRAVA · PPG 1.86

DEPORTIVO RINCON · PPG 0.43

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.00 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Costa Brava (H) 56.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Deportivo Rincon (A) 18.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Costa Brava face Deportivo Rincon in Argentina - Torneo Federal A on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Costa Brava a 57% chance, the draw 25% and Deportivo Rincon 18%, so Costa Brava are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Costa Brava and 0.5 for Deportivo Rincon (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Costa Brava are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 0.43 for Deportivo Rincon.

Costa Brava vs Deportivo Rincon Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Match Preview & Prediction

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