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Defensores de Belgrano VR vs Gimnasia Chivilcoy Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Regular Season - 18 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 18:00

Defensores de Belgrano VR

PPG 2.25 · HOME

UPCOMING

Gimnasia Chivilcoy

PPG 0.62 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +0.80 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.3%0-18.1%0-22.5%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-018.8%1-111.4%1-23.5%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.2%2-18.0%2-22.4%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.2%3-13.8%3-21.1%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-11.8%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.7% — — —

Draw 26.3% — — —

Away win 20.0% — — —

Over 2.5 39.3% — — —

Over 3.5 20.9% — — —

BTTS 46.4% — — —

Home O1.5 46.3% — — —

Away O1.5 19.1% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 44%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob46.4%

H 54% / xG 1.4-0.6 / U2.5 39% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.8%

#2 0–0 13.3%

#3 2–0 13.2%

#4 1–1 11.4%

#5 2–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Defensores de Belgrano VR1.4

Gimnasia Chivilcoy0.6

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 39.3% · O3.5 PROB 20.9%

Form & verdict PPG

DEFENSORES DE BELGRANO VR · PPG 2.25

GIMNASIA CHIVILCOY · PPG 0.62

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.80 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Defensores de Belgrano VR (H) 53.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Gimnasia Chivilcoy (A) 20.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Defensores de Belgrano VR face Gimnasia Chivilcoy in Argentina - Torneo Federal A on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Defensores de Belgrano VR a 54% chance, the draw 26% and Gimnasia Chivilcoy 20%, so Defensores de Belgrano VR are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Defensores de Belgrano VR and 0.6 for Gimnasia Chivilcoy (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Defensores de Belgrano VR are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 0.62 for Gimnasia Chivilcoy.

Defensores de Belgrano VR vs Gimnasia Chivilcoy Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Match Preview & Prediction

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