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Kimberley Mar del Plata vs Circulo Deportivo Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Regular Season - 18 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 18:00

Kimberley Mar del Plata

PPG 1.71 · HOME

UPCOMING

Circulo Deportivo

PPG 0.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 59.5% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-021.1%0-15.1%0-20.6%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-027.7%1-16.8%1-20.8%1-30.1%1-4+0.0%2 2-018.2%2-14.4%2-20.5%2-30.0%2-4+0.0%3 3-07.9%3-11.9%3-20.2%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-03.5%4+-10.8%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.5% 71.4% 1.40 -16.7%

Draw 28.1% 28.6% 3.50 -1.0%

Away win 12.4% 11.8% 8.50 +3.2%

Over 2.5 35.9% 38.2% 2.62 -5.9%

Over 3.5 17.8% 20.0% 5.00 -6.6%

BTTS 30.0% 30.8% 3.25 -2.5%

Home O1.5 38.5% 52.4% 1.91 -26.5%

Away O1.5 11.1% 11.8% 8.50 -3.4%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 58%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.2 BTTS prob30.0%

H 60% / xG 1.3-0.2 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 30%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 27.7%

#2 0–0 21.1%

#3 2–0 18.2%

#4 3–0 7.9%

#5 1–1 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kimberley Mar del Plata1.3

Circulo Deportivo0.2

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.9% · O3.5 PROB 17.8%

Form & verdict PPG

KIMBERLEY MAR DEL PLATA · PPG 1.71

CIRCULO DEPORTIVO · PPG 0.29

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.07 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Kimberley Mar del Plata (H) 59.5%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -16.7%

Draw 28.1%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -1.0%

Circulo Deportivo (A) 12.4%

ODDS 8.50 · IMPLIED 11.8% EV +3.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kimberley Mar del Plata face Circulo Deportivo in Argentina - Torneo Federal A on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kimberley Mar del Plata a 60% chance, the draw 28% and Circulo Deportivo 12%, so Kimberley Mar del Plata are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Kimberley Mar del Plata and 0.2 for Circulo Deportivo (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 30% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kimberley Mar del Plata are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 0.29 for Circulo Deportivo. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +14.5%.

Kimberley Mar del Plata vs Circulo Deportivo Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Match Preview & Prediction

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