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Barra Mansa vs Búzios Prediction— Brazil - Carioca C

Semi-finals ·Thursday, July 23, 2026, 17:45

Barra Mansa

PPG 1.60 · HOME

UPCOMING

Búzios

PPG 2.20 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.5%0-117.0%0-210.8%0-34.5%0-4+1.9%1 1-010.0%1-112.6%1-28.0%1-33.4%1-4+1.4%2 2-03.7%2-14.7%2-22.9%2-31.2%2-4+0.5%3 3-00.9%3-11.2%3-20.7%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.2%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.8% — — —

Draw 28.3% — — —

Away win 47.9% — — —

Over 2.5 46.8% — — —

Over 3.5 28.8% — — —

BTTS 48.4% — — —

Home O1.5 33.3% — — —

Away O1.5 36.8% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 31%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob48.4%

A 48% / xG 0.7-1.3 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 13.5%

#2 0–1 17.0%

#3 1–1 12.6%

#4 0–2 10.8%

#5 1–0 10.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Barra Mansa0.7

Búzios1.3

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.8% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

BARRA MANSA · PPG 1.60

BÚZIOS · PPG 2.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.20) vs Home GOOD (1.60)

Win probability 1X2

Barra Mansa (H) 23.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 28.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Búzios (A) 47.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Barra Mansa face Búzios in Brazil - Carioca C on Thursday, July 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Barra Mansa a 24% chance, the draw 28% and Búzios 48%, so Búzios are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Barra Mansa and 1.3 for Búzios (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Barra Mansa are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 2.20 for Búzios.

Barra Mansa vs Búzios Prediction— Brazil - Carioca C

Match Preview & Prediction

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