Today / Brazil - Maranhense - 2 / Lago Verde vs Pinheiro

Lago Verde vs Pinheiro Prediction— Brazil - Maranhense - 2

Semi-finals ·Wednesday, July 22, 2026, 22:00

Lago Verde

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWDL

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Pinheiro

PPG 2.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWLD

// Model verdict

Home 67% chance

xG gap +1.52 for Home, but form 2.00 vs 2.33 doesn't confirm

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-13.5%0-21.4%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-010.3%1-18.2%1-23.3%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.9%2-19.5%2-23.8%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.2%3-17.3%3-22.9%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-09.2%4+-17.3%4+-22.9%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 67.0% — — —

Draw 17.7% — — —

Away win 15.3% — — —

Over 2.5 63.7% — — —

Over 3.5 41.3% — — —

BTTS 54.0% — — —

Home O1.5 61.8% — — —

Away O1.5 20.1% — — —

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.9%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–1 8.2%

#4 3–0 9.2%

#5 1–0 10.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lago Verde2.3

Pinheiro0.8

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 41.3%

Form & verdict PPG

LAGO VERDE · PPG 2.00

PINHEIRO · PPG 2.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

67%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

xG gap +1.52 for Home, but form 2.00 vs 2.33 doesn't confirm

Win probability 1X2

Lago Verde (H) 67.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 17.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Pinheiro (A) 15.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Lago Verde face Pinheiro in Brazil - Maranhense - 2 on Wednesday, July 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lago Verde a 67% chance, the draw 18% and Pinheiro 15%, so Lago Verde are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Lago Verde and 0.8 for Pinheiro (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lago Verde are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 2.33 for Pinheiro. This match finished 2-2.

Lago Verde vs Pinheiro Prediction— Brazil - Maranhense - 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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