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Timon MA vs Araioses Prediction— Brazil - Maranhense - 2

Semi-finals ·Wednesday, July 22, 2026, 19:00

Timon MA

PPG 2.33 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWLD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Araioses

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWDW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-035.3%0-117.7%0-24.4%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.1%1-19.6%1-22.4%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-05.2%2-12.6%2-20.6%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-00.9%3-10.5%3-20.1%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.2% 40.8% 2.45 -6.4%

Draw 37.4% 30.3% 3.30 +23.4%

Away win 24.4% 40.8% 2.45 -24.1%

Over 2.5 23.1% 40.0% 2.50 -25.4%

Over 3.5 11.6% 20.0% 5.00 -25.2%

BTTS 30.0% 49.0% 2.04 -38.8%

Home O1.5 33.3% 32.9% 3.04 +1.2%

Away O1.5 19.1% 33.6% 2.98 -25.9%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)0.5 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob30.0%

H 38% / xG 0.5-0.5 / U2.5 23% / NoBTTS 30%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 35.3%

#2 1–0 19.1%

#3 0–1 17.7%

#4 1–1✓ 9.6%

#5 2–0 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Timon MA0.5

Araioses0.5

COMBINED 1.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 23.1% · O3.5 PROB 11.6%

Form & verdict PPG

TIMON MA · PPG 2.33

ARAIOSES · PPG 2.00

🎯 STRONG BET - Draw signal + Draw value aligned

Chance this pick lands

38%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.04, combined xG 1.04 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Timon MA (H) 38.2%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -6.4%

Draw 37.4%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +23.4%

Araioses (A) 24.4%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -24.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Timon MA face Araioses in Brazil - Maranhense - 2 on Wednesday, July 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Timon MA a 38% chance, the draw 37% and Araioses 24%, so Timon MA are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.5 for Timon MA and 0.5 for Araioses (1.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 23% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 30% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Timon MA are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 2.00 for Araioses. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +1.2%. This match finished 1-1.