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Timon MA vs Araioses Prediction— Brazil - Maranhense - 2

Semi-finals ·Wednesday, July 22, 2026, 19:00

Timon MA

PPG 2.33 · HOME

UPCOMING

Araioses

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-035.3%0-117.7%0-24.4%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.1%1-19.6%1-22.4%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-05.2%2-12.6%2-20.6%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-00.9%3-10.5%3-20.1%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.2% — — —

Draw 37.4% — — —

Away win 24.4% — — —

Over 2.5 23.1% — — —

Over 3.5 11.6% — — —

BTTS 28.6% — — —

Home O1.5 33.3% — — —

Away O1.5 18.5% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 37%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.5 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob28.6%

H 38% / xG 0.5-0.5 / U2.5 23% / NoBTTS 29%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 35.3%

#2 1–0 19.1%

#3 0–1 17.7%

#4 1–1 9.6%

#5 2–0 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Timon MA0.5

Araioses0.5

COMBINED 1.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 23.1% · O3.5 PROB 11.6%

Form & verdict PPG

TIMON MA · PPG 2.33

ARAIOSES · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.33) > Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

Timon MA (H) 38.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 37.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Araioses (A) 24.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Timon MA face Araioses in Brazil - Maranhense - 2 on Wednesday, July 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Timon MA a 38% chance, the draw 37% and Araioses 24%, so Timon MA are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.5 for Timon MA and 0.5 for Araioses (1.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 23% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 29% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Timon MA are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 2.00 for Araioses.

Timon MA vs Araioses Prediction— Brazil - Maranhense - 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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