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Gnistan W vs Aland Utd W Prediction— Finland - Kansallinen Liiga

Regular Season - 8 ·Sunday, May 31, 2026, 11:00

Gnistan W

PPG 1.00 · HOME

1 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY O1.5

Aland Utd W

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.00) vs Away GOOD (1.50)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.3%0-11.1%0-22.0%0-32.4%0-4+5.3%1 1-00.7%1-12.5%1-24.4%1-35.2%1-4+11.7%2 2-00.8%2-12.7%2-24.8%2-35.7%2-4+12.8%3 3-00.6%3-12.0%3-23.5%3-34.2%3-4+9.3%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-11.8%4+-23.2%4+-33.8%4+-4+8.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 20.2% — — —

Draw 19.9% — — —

Away win 59.8% — — —

Over 2.5 80.0% — — —

Over 3.5 60.7% — — —

BTTS 65.9% — — —

Home O1.5 64.2% — — —

Away O1.5 87.0% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 65%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)3.6 BTTS prob65.9%

A 60% / xG 2.2-3.6 / O2.5 80% / BTTS 66%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–3 5.7%

#2 1–3 5.2%

#3 2–4 5.1%

#4 2–2 4.8%

#5 1–4✓ 4.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gnistan W2.2

Aland Utd W3.6

COMBINED 5.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 80.0% · O3.5 PROB 60.7%

Form & verdict PPG

GNISTAN W · PPG 1.00

ALAND UTD W · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.00) vs Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Gnistan W (H) 20.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 19.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Aland Utd W (A) 59.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Gnistan W face Aland Utd W in Finland - Kansallinen Liiga on Sunday, May 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gnistan W a 20% chance, the draw 20% and Aland Utd W 60%, so Aland Utd W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Gnistan W and 3.6 for Aland Utd W (5.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-3. There is a 80% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gnistan W are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.50 for Aland Utd W. This match finished 1-4.

Gnistan W vs Aland Utd W Prediction— Finland - Kansallinen Liiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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