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Braga W vs SL Benfica W Prediction— Portugal - 1a Divisão - Women

Regular Season - 16 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 17:30

Braga W

PPG 0.71 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

SL Benfica W

PPG 2.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 80.9% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5% — a clear edge.

+10.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-112.5%0-215.5%0-312.9%0-4+14.5%1 1-02.5%1-16.3%1-27.8%1-36.5%1-4+7.3%2 2-00.6%2-11.6%2-22.0%2-31.6%2-4+1.8%3 3-00.1%3-10.3%3-20.3%3-30.3%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.0%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 5.6% 14.3% 7.00 -60.8%

Draw 13.6% 25.0% 4.00 -45.6%

Away win 80.9% 73.5% 1.36 +10.0%

Over 2.5 57.5% — — —

Over 3.5 35.1% — — —

BTTS 36.3% 52.4% 1.91 -30.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 15 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 73%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 73%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 76%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)0.5 xG (away)2.5 BTTS prob36.3%

A 81% / xG 0.5-2.5 / O2.5 57% / NoBTTS 36%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 15.5%

#2 0–3 12.9%

#3 0–1 12.5%

#4 0–4 8.0%

#5 1–2 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Braga W0.5

SL Benfica W2.5

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.5% · O3.5 PROB 35.1%

Form & verdict PPG

BRAGA W · PPG 0.71

SL BENFICA W · PPG 2.71

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

66%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.71) vs Home POOR (0.71)

Win probability 1X2

Braga W (H) 5.6%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV -60.8%

Draw 13.6%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -45.6%

SL Benfica W (A) 80.9%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV +10.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Braga W face SL Benfica W in Portugal - 1a Divisão - Women on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Braga W a 6% chance, the draw 14% and SL Benfica W 81%, so SL Benfica W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.5 for Braga W and 2.5 for SL Benfica W (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 36% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Braga W are averaging 0.71 points per game versus 2.71 for SL Benfica W. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +10.0%. This match finished 2-3.

Braga W vs SL Benfica W Prediction— Portugal - 1a Divisão - Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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