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Svitavy vs Kolín Prediction— Czech-Republic - 4. liga - Divizie C

Group C · Matchday 5 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 15:00

Svitavy

PPG 1.30 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLL ·

UPCOMING

Kolín

PPG 1.36 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDDL ·

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 67% chance

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 66.8% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-15.0%0-24.3%0-32.4%0-4+1.5%1 1-05.4%1-19.2%1-27.8%1-34.4%1-4+2.8%2 2-04.9%2-18.3%2-27.1%2-34.0%2-4+2.5%3 3-03.0%3-15.0%3-24.3%3-32.4%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-13.5%4+-22.9%4+-31.7%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.8% 38.5% 2.60 +3.5%

Draw 22.7% 25.0% 4.00 -5.5%

Away win 37.5% 47.6% 2.10 -21.3%

Over 2.5 66.8% 66.7% 1.50 +0.2%

Over 3.5 44.9% 45.9% 2.18 -2.1%

BTTS 63.5% 69.4% 1.44 -8.6%

Home O1.5 51.4% 52.6% 1.90 -2.3%

Away O1.5 47.9% 52.6% 1.90 -9.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 8 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 38%

Score Hit 25%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob63.5%

H 40% / xG 1.8-1.7 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.2%

#2 2–1 8.3%

#3 1–2 7.8%

#4 2–2 7.1%

#5 3–1 5.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Svitavy1.8

Kolín1.7

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.8% · O3.5 PROB 44.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SVITAVY · PPG 1.30

KOLÍN · PPG 1.36

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

67%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.11 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Svitavy (H) 39.8%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV +3.5%

Draw 22.7%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -5.5%

Kolín (A) 37.5%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -21.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Svitavy face Kolín in Czech-Republic - 4. liga - Divizie C on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Svitavy a 40% chance, the draw 23% and Kolín 38%, so Svitavy are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Svitavy and 1.7 for Kolín (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Svitavy are averaging 1.30 points per game versus 1.36 for Kolín. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +0.8%.

Svitavy vs Kolín Prediction— Czech-Republic - 4. liga - Divizie C

Match Preview & Prediction

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