Today / Czech-Republic - 4. liga - Divizie C / Vysoké Mýto vs Spartak Police n/Metují

Vysoké Mýto vs Spartak Police n/Metují Prediction— Czech-Republic - 4. liga - Divizie C

Group C · Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 15:00

Vysoké Mýto

PPG 2.09 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWW ·

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Spartak Police n/Metují

PPG 1.52 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLW ·

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-14.4%0-22.2%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-09.2%1-19.3%1-24.7%1-31.6%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.8%2-19.9%2-25.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.0%3-17.0%3-23.6%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-06.1%4+-16.1%4+-23.1%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.8% 58.8% 1.70 -5.1%

Draw 22.2% 25.6% 3.90 -8.1%

Away win 22.0% 27.0% 3.70 -11.2%

Over 2.5 59.7% 65.4% 1.53 -8.7%

Over 3.5 36.6% 44.6% 2.24 -18.0%

BTTS 54.7% 64.9% 1.54 -15.8%

Home O1.5 59.6% — — —

Away O1.5 31.6% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 8 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 38%

Score Hit 25%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.7%

H 56% / xG 2.1-1.0 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.3%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0✓ 9.8%

#4 1–0 9.2%

#5 1–2 4.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vysoké Mýto2.1

Spartak Police n/Metují1.0

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

VYSOKÉ MÝTO · PPG 2.09

SPARTAK POLICE N/METUJÍ · PPG 1.52

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.12 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Vysoké Mýto (H) 55.8%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -5.1%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -8.1%

Spartak Police n/Metují (A) 22.0%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -11.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vysoké Mýto face Spartak Police n/Metují in Czech-Republic - 4. liga - Divizie C on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vysoké Mýto a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Spartak Police n/Metují 22%, so Vysoké Mýto are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Vysoké Mýto and 1.0 for Spartak Police n/Metují (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vysoké Mýto are averaging 2.09 points per game versus 1.52 for Spartak Police n/Metují. This match finished 2-0.