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Mladost Lješkopolje vs Rudar Prediction— Montenegro - Second League

Matchday 4 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 15:00

Mladost Lješkopolje

PPG 1.87 · HOME

LAST 5

WWD ··

UPCOMING

Rudar

PPG 0.98 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLL ··

// Model verdict

Home 59% chance

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.7%0-17.9%0-23.6%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-013.3%1-112.1%1-25.5%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.3%2-19.3%2-24.2%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.3%3-14.8%3-22.2%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-12.6%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.0% 61.7% 1.62 -14.1%

Draw 24.3% 28.6% 3.50 -9.0%

Away win 22.7% 21.1% 4.75 +4.7%

Over 2.5 50.4% 51.3% 1.95 -1.7%

Over 3.5 28.7% 31.3% 3.20 -4.9%

BTTS 49.9% 53.5% 1.87 -6.7%

Home O1.5 42.5% 55.6% 1.80 -23.5%

Away O1.5 26.1% 27.0% 3.70 -2.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 5 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 40%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 25%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob49.9%

H 53% / xG 1.5-0.9 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 13.3%

#2 1–1 12.1%

#3 2–0 10.3%

#4 2–1 9.3%

#5 0–0 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mladost Lješkopolje1.5

Rudar0.9

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

MLADOST LJEŠKOPOLJE · PPG 1.87

RUDAR · PPG 0.98

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

59%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.63 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Mladost Lješkopolje (H) 53.0%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -14.1%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -9.0%

Rudar (A) 22.7%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +4.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mladost Lješkopolje face Rudar in Montenegro - Second League on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mladost Lješkopolje a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Rudar 23%, so Mladost Lješkopolje are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Mladost Lješkopolje and 0.9 for Rudar (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mladost Lješkopolje are averaging 1.87 points per game versus 0.98 for Rudar.

Mladost Lješkopolje vs Rudar Prediction— Montenegro - Second League

Match Preview & Prediction

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