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Mladost Lješkopolje vs Kom Prediction— Montenegro - Second League

Matchday 2 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 15:30

Mladost Lješkopolje

PPG 1.64 · HOME

LAST 5

WWD ··

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Kom

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLW ··

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 55.0% vs bookmaker-implied 49.5% — a clear edge.

+11.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-15.0%0-22.6%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-09.8%1-110.0%1-25.1%1-31.8%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.7%2-110.0%2-25.1%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.4%3-16.6%3-23.4%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-05.0%4+-15.2%4+-22.7%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.9% 54.1% 1.85 +1.6%

Draw 23.4% 32.3% 3.10 -16.5%

Away win 21.7% 27.0% 3.70 -11.8%

Over 2.5 53.9% 48.8% 2.05 +10.5%

Over 3.5 31.6% 28.6% 3.50 +10.6%

BTTS 53.0% 51.3% 1.95 +3.4%

Home O1.5 55.0% 49.5% 2.02 +11.1%

Away O1.5 32.3% 30.8% 3.25 +5.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 4 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.0%

H 55% / xG 2.0-1.0 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.0%

#2 2–1✓ 10.0%

#3 2–0 9.7%

#4 1–0 9.8%

#5 1–2 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mladost Lješkopolje2.0

Kom1.0

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

MLADOST LJEŠKOPOLJE · PPG 1.64

KOM · PPG 1.25

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.96 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Mladost Lješkopolje (H) 54.9%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV +1.6%

Draw 23.4%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -16.5%

Kom (A) 21.7%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -11.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mladost Lješkopolje face Kom in Montenegro - Second League on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mladost Lješkopolje a 55% chance, the draw 23% and Kom 22%, so Mladost Lješkopolje are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Mladost Lješkopolje and 1.0 for Kom (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mladost Lješkopolje are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 1.25 for Kom. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +11.1%. This match finished 2-1.