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Thanh Hóa vs Da Nang Prediction— Vietnam - V.League 1

Matchday 1 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 10:00

Thanh Hóa

PPG 1.27 · HOME

UPCOMING

Da Nang

PPG 0.97 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS 52% chance

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.3%0-19.0%0-24.9%0-31.8%0-4+0.6%1 1-011.7%1-112.7%1-26.9%1-32.5%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.2%2-18.9%2-24.8%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.8%3-14.1%3-22.2%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.0%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.7% 34.5% 2.90 +29.6%

Draw 26.2% 34.5% 2.90 -14.4%

Away win 29.1% 43.5% 2.30 -19.8%

Over 2.5 50.6% 46.5% 2.15 +8.8%

Over 3.5 28.7% 26.7% 3.75 +4.6%

BTTS 52.9% 51.3% 1.95 +3.1%

Home O1.5 39.8% 30.8% 3.25 +29.3%

Away O1.5 32.9% 42.0% 2.38 -21.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 3 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.9%

H 45% / xG 1.4-1.1 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 1–0 11.7%

#3 2–1 8.9%

#4 0–0 8.3%

#5 2–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Thanh Hóa1.4

Da Nang1.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

THANH HÓA · PPG 1.27

DA NANG · PPG 0.97

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

Chance this pick lands

52%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.32, combined xG 2.48 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Thanh Hóa (H) 44.7%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +29.6%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -14.4%

Da Nang (A) 29.1%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -19.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Thanh Hóa face Da Nang in Vietnam - V.League 1 on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Thanh Hóa a 45% chance, the draw 26% and Da Nang 29%, so Thanh Hóa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Thanh Hóa and 1.1 for Da Nang (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Thanh Hóa are averaging 1.27 points per game versus 0.97 for Da Nang. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +40.7%.

Thanh Hóa vs Da Nang Prediction— Vietnam - V.League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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