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Anderlecht W vs Genk W Prediction— Belgium - Super League Women

Matchday 1 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 17:00

Anderlecht W

PPG 1.92 · HOME

UPCOMING

Genk W

PPG 1.36 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS 56% chance

Model probability 61.5% vs bookmaker-implied 53.2% — a clear edge.

+15.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-17.3%0-25.2%0-32.4%0-4+1.2%1 1-08.0%1-111.3%1-28.0%1-33.8%1-4+1.8%2 2-06.2%2-18.8%2-26.2%2-32.9%2-4+1.4%3 3-03.2%3-14.5%3-23.2%3-31.5%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.5%4+-21.7%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.1% 87.7% 1.14 -52.0%

Draw 23.4% 14.3% 7.00 +38.3%

Away win 34.6% 9.1% 11.00 +280.6%

Over 2.5 59.6% 75.2% 1.33 -20.7%

Over 3.5 36.4% 55.2% 1.81 -34.1%

BTTS 61.5% 53.2% 1.88 +15.6%

Home O1.5 44.6% 84.0% 1.19 -46.9%

Away O1.5 42.2% 19.2% 5.20 +119.4%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob61.5%

H 42% / xG 1.5-1.4 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 1–2 8.0%

#4 1–0 8.0%

#5 2–0 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Anderlecht W1.5

Genk W1.4

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ANDERLECHT W · PPG 1.92

GENK W · PPG 1.36

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

56%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.14 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Anderlecht W (H) 42.1%

ODDS 1.14 · IMPLIED 87.7% EV -52.0%

Draw 23.4%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV +38.3%

Genk W (A) 34.6%

ODDS 11.00 · IMPLIED 9.1% EV +280.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Anderlecht W face Genk W in Belgium - Super League Women on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Anderlecht W a 42% chance, the draw 23% and Genk W 35%, so Anderlecht W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Anderlecht W and 1.4 for Genk W (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Anderlecht W are averaging 1.92 points per game versus 1.36 for Genk W. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +119.4%.

Anderlecht W vs Genk W Prediction— Belgium - Super League Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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