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Ústí nad Orlicí vs Hlinsko Prediction— Czech-Republic - 4. liga - Divizie C

Group C · Matchday 5 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 15:00

Ústí nad Orlicí

PPG 1.64 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWL ·

UPCOMING

Hlinsko

PPG 1.22 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWW ·

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 66% chance

Combined xG of 4.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 72.6% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7% — a clear edge.

+14.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.4%0-12.5%0-22.2%0-31.3%0-4+0.9%1 1-03.5%1-16.2%1-25.5%1-33.3%1-4+2.2%2 2-04.3%2-17.7%2-26.9%2-34.1%2-4+2.7%3 3-03.6%3-16.4%3-25.7%3-33.4%3-4+2.2%4+ 4+-04.0%4+-17.2%4+-26.4%4+-33.8%4+-4+2.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.8% 38.5% 2.60 +32.1%

Draw 19.6% 28.6% 3.50 -18.8%

Away win 29.6% 44.4% 2.25 -20.0%

Over 2.5 72.6% 63.7% 1.57 +14.0%

Over 3.5 52.5% 43.9% 2.28 +19.7%

BTTS 69.7% 64.9% 1.54 +7.3%

Home O1.5 66.3% — — —

Away O1.5 47.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 8 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 38%

Score Hit 25%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 58%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob69.7%

H 51% / xG 2.5-1.8 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 7.7%

#2 1–1 6.2%

#3 2–2 6.9%

#4 3–1 6.4%

#5 1–2 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ústí nad Orlicí2.5

Hlinsko1.8

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.6% · O3.5 PROB 52.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ÚSTÍ NAD ORLICÍ · PPG 1.64

HLINSKO · PPG 1.22

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

66%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.70 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Ústí nad Orlicí (H) 50.8%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV +32.1%

Draw 19.6%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -18.8%

Hlinsko (A) 29.6%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -20.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ústí nad Orlicí face Hlinsko in Czech-Republic - 4. liga - Divizie C on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ústí nad Orlicí a 51% chance, the draw 20% and Hlinsko 30%, so Ústí nad Orlicí are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Ústí nad Orlicí and 1.8 for Hlinsko (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ústí nad Orlicí are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 1.22 for Hlinsko. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +19.7%.

Ústí nad Orlicí vs Hlinsko Prediction— Czech-Republic - 4. liga - Divizie C

Match Preview & Prediction

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