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Ascoli U19 vs Spezia U19 Prediction— Italy - Campionato Primavera - 2

Matchday 1 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 10:00

Ascoli U19

PPG 1.22 · HOME

UPCOMING

Spezia U19

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS 69% chance

Model probability 61.5% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-16.7%0-24.5%0-32.0%0-4+0.9%1 1-08.3%1-111.1%1-27.5%1-33.4%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.8%2-19.2%2-26.2%2-32.8%2-4+1.2%3 3-03.7%3-15.0%3-23.4%3-31.5%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-13.0%4+-22.0%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.4% 43.5% 2.30 +4.4%

Draw 24.5% 27.8% 3.60 -7.1%

Away win 30.1% 40.0% 2.50 -24.8%

Over 2.5 59.6% 60.6% 1.65 -1.7%

Over 3.5 36.4% 46.5% 2.15 -21.7%

BTTS 61.5% 71.4% 1.40 -13.9%

Home O1.5 48.3% 50.0% 2.00 -3.4%

Away O1.5 42.2% 48.1% 2.08 -12.2%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob61.5%

H 45% / xG 1.6-1.3 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 1–2 7.5%

#4 2–0 6.8%

#5 1–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ascoli U191.6

Spezia U191.3

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ASCOLI U19 · PPG 1.22

SPEZIA U19 · PPG 1.17

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

69%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.30 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Ascoli U19 (H) 45.4%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +4.4%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -7.1%

Spezia U19 (A) 30.1%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -24.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ascoli U19 face Spezia U19 in Italy - Campionato Primavera - 2 on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ascoli U19 a 45% chance, the draw 25% and Spezia U19 30%, so Ascoli U19 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Ascoli U19 and 1.3 for Spezia U19 (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ascoli U19 are averaging 1.22 points per game versus 1.17 for Spezia U19.

Ascoli U19 vs Spezia U19 Prediction— Italy - Campionato Primavera - 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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