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Pisa U19 vs Perugia U19 Prediction— Italy - Campionato Primavera - 2

Matchday 1 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 18:00

Pisa U19

PPG 2.04 · HOME

LAST 5

L ····

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Perugia U19

PPG 1.56 · AWAY

LAST 5

W ····

// Model verdict

BTTS 63% chance

Model probability 61.5% vs bookmaker-implied 64.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-16.6%0-24.4%0-32.0%0-4+0.9%1 1-08.2%1-111.0%1-27.4%1-33.3%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.9%2-19.2%2-26.2%2-32.8%2-4+1.2%3 3-03.8%3-15.1%3-23.4%3-31.5%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-13.1%4+-22.1%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.8% 45.5% 2.20 +0.8%

Draw 24.3% 29.4% 3.40 -10.4%

Away win 29.9% 36.4% 2.75 -10.7%

Over 2.5 59.7% 57.8% 1.73 +3.3%

Over 3.5 36.4% 37.0% 2.70 -1.7%

BTTS 61.5% 64.1% 1.56 -4.1%

Home O1.5 49.3% 49.5% 2.02 -0.4%

Away O1.5 42.2% 43.1% 2.32 -2.1%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob61.5%

H 46% / xG 1.7-1.3 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 1–2 7.4%

#4 2–0 6.9%

#5 1–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pisa U191.7

Perugia U191.3

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

PISA U19 · PPG 2.04

PERUGIA U19 · PPG 1.56

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

63%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.33 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Pisa U19 (H) 45.8%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +0.8%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -10.4%

Perugia U19 (A) 29.9%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -10.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Pisa U19 face Perugia U19 in Italy - Campionato Primavera - 2 on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pisa U19 a 46% chance, the draw 24% and Perugia U19 30%, so Pisa U19 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Pisa U19 and 1.3 for Perugia U19 (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pisa U19 are averaging 2.04 points per game versus 1.56 for Perugia U19. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +3.3%. This match finished 2-3.

Pisa U19 vs Perugia U19 Prediction— Italy - Campionato Primavera - 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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