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Arys vs Ekibastuz Prediction— Kazakhstan - 1. Division

Matchday 21 ·Thursday, September 3, 2026, 12:00

Arys

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDDL

UPCOMING

Ekibastuz

PPG 1.30 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWLL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.0% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-18.0%0-25.6%0-32.6%0-4+1.2%1 1-08.4%1-111.7%1-28.2%1-33.8%1-4+1.8%2 2-06.1%2-18.6%2-26.0%2-32.8%2-4+1.3%3 3-03.0%3-14.2%3-22.9%3-31.3%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-12.1%4+-21.5%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.4% 40.8% 2.45 -3.5%

Draw 24.4% 29.4% 3.40 -10.2%

Away win 36.2% 43.1% 2.32 -16.0%

Over 2.5 58.3% 69.9% 1.43 -16.6%

Over 3.5 35.5% 48.1% 2.08 -26.2%

BTTS 59.0% 71.4% 1.40 -17.4%

Home O1.5 39.9% — — —

Away O1.5 42.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob59.0%

H 39% / xG 1.5-1.4 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 2–1 8.6%

#3 1–2 8.2%

#4 1–0 8.4%

#5 0–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Arys1.5

Ekibastuz1.4

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 58.3% · O3.5 PROB 35.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ARYS · PPG 1.00

EKIBASTUZ · PPG 1.30

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.06 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Arys (H) 39.4%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -3.5%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -10.2%

Ekibastuz (A) 36.2%

ODDS 2.32 · IMPLIED 43.1% EV -16.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Arys face Ekibastuz in Kazakhstan - 1. Division on Thursday, September 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Arys a 39% chance, the draw 24% and Ekibastuz 36%, so Arys are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Arys and 1.4 for Ekibastuz (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Arys are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.30 for Ekibastuz. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +0.7%.

Arys vs Ekibastuz Prediction— Kazakhstan - 1. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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