Today / Kazakhstan - 1. Division / Arys vs Taraz

Arys vs Taraz Prediction— Kazakhstan - 1. Division

Matchday 19 ·Thursday, August 20, 2026, 12:00

Arys

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDDL

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Taraz

PPG 0.78 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLDDW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-110.3%0-26.9%0-33.1%0-4+1.4%1 1-09.4%1-112.6%1-28.5%1-33.8%1-4+1.7%2 2-05.7%2-17.7%2-25.2%2-32.3%2-4+1.1%3 3-02.4%3-13.2%3-22.1%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.3%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.3% 30.3% 3.30 +19.8%

Draw 27.5% 28.2% 3.55 -1.4%

Away win 36.3% 54.6% 1.83 -33.6%

Over 2.5 50.2% 68.5% 1.46 -26.7%

Over 3.5 28.4% 47.2% 2.12 -23.9%

BTTS 53.0% 69.0% 1.45 -23.2%

Home O1.5 33.2% — — —

Away O1.5 41.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 20%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob53.0%

H 36% / xG 1.2-1.3 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.6%

#2 2–1 7.7%

#3 0–0 7.6%

#4 1–0 9.4%

#5 1–2 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Arys1.2

Taraz1.3

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 28.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ARYS · PPG 1.00

TARAZ · PPG 0.78

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.12 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Arys (H) 36.3%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +19.8%

Draw 27.5%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -1.4%

Taraz (A) 36.3%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -33.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Arys face Taraz in Kazakhstan - 1. Division on Thursday, August 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Arys a 36% chance, the draw 28% and Taraz 36%, so Arys are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Arys and 1.3 for Taraz (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Arys are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.78 for Taraz. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +5.9%. This match finished 1-1.