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Sur vs Al-Shabab Prediction— Oman - Professional League

Matchday 1 ·Monday, August 31, 2026, 16:15

Sur

PPG 1.53 · HOME

LAST 5

L ····

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Al-Shabab

PPG 1.82 · AWAY

LAST 5

W ····

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.07, combined xG 2.43 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.8%0-110.3%0-26.1%0-32.4%0-4+0.9%1 1-011.0%1-113.0%1-27.7%1-33.0%1-4+1.1%2 2-06.9%2-18.1%2-24.8%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-02.9%3-13.4%3-22.0%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.4%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.6% — — —

Draw 26.5% — — —

Away win 35.0% — — —

Over 2.5 50.6% — — —

Over 3.5 28.7% — — —

BTTS 52.9% — — —

Home O1.5 37.3% — — —

Away O1.5 33.3% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 5 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 40%

BTTS 40%

Score Hit 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 1–0 11.0%

#3 0–0 8.8%

#4 0–1 10.3%

#5 2–1 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sur1.3

Al-Shabab1.2

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SUR · PPG 1.53

AL-SHABAB · PPG 1.82

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.07, combined xG 2.43 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Sur (H) 38.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Al-Shabab (A) 35.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Sur face Al-Shabab in Oman - Professional League on Monday, August 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sur a 39% chance, the draw 27% and Al-Shabab 35%, so Sur are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Sur and 1.2 for Al-Shabab (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sur are averaging 1.53 points per game versus 1.82 for Al-Shabab. This match finished 2-3.

Sur vs Al-Shabab Prediction— Oman - Professional League

Match Preview & Prediction

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