Today / Nigeria - NPFL / Bendel Insurance vs Warri Wolves

Bendel Insurance vs Warri Wolves Prediction— Nigeria - NPFL

Matchday 1 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 15:00

Bendel Insurance

PPG 1.82 · HOME

LAST 5

W ····

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Warri Wolves

PPG 1.01 · AWAY

LAST 5

L ····

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +0.53 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.6%0-110.0%0-23.7%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-017.1%1-112.6%1-24.6%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-010.8%2-17.9%2-22.9%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.5%3-13.3%3-21.2%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-11.4%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.8% — — —

Draw 28.0% — — —

Away win 24.2% — — —

Over 2.5 43.1% — — —

Over 3.5 20.7% — — —

BTTS 47.2% — — —

Home O1.5 36.9% — — —

Away O1.5 18.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 29%

BTTS 14%

Score Hit 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.1%

#2 0–0 13.6%

#3 1–1 12.6%

#4 2–0 10.8%

#5 0–1 10.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bendel Insurance1.3

Warri Wolves0.7

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.1% · O3.5 PROB 20.7%

Form & verdict PPG

BENDEL INSURANCE · PPG 1.82

WARRI WOLVES · PPG 1.01

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.53 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Bendel Insurance (H) 47.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 28.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Warri Wolves (A) 24.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Bendel Insurance face Warri Wolves in Nigeria - NPFL on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bendel Insurance a 48% chance, the draw 28% and Warri Wolves 24%, so Bendel Insurance are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Bendel Insurance and 0.7 for Warri Wolves (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bendel Insurance are averaging 1.82 points per game versus 1.01 for Warri Wolves. This match finished 2-1.

Bendel Insurance vs Warri Wolves Prediction— Nigeria - NPFL

Match Preview & Prediction

More Nigeria - NPFL Predictions