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Barau FC vs Nasarawa United Prediction— Nigeria - NPFL

Matchday 1 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 15:00

Barau FC

PPG 1.93 · HOME

LAST 5

W ····

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Nasarawa United

PPG 0.97 · AWAY

LAST 5

L ····

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +0.54 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.1%0-19.8%0-23.6%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-016.8%1-112.6%1-24.7%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.9%2-18.1%2-23.0%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.7%3-13.5%3-21.3%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-11.5%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.4% — — —

Draw 27.7% — — —

Away win 23.9% — — —

Over 2.5 43.1% — — —

Over 3.5 20.7% — — —

BTTS 47.2% — — —

Home O1.5 37.2% — — —

Away O1.5 19.1% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 29%

BTTS 14%

Score Hit 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.8%

#2 0–0 13.1%

#3 1–1 12.6%

#4 2–0 10.9%

#5 0–1 9.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Barau FC1.3

Nasarawa United0.7

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.1% · O3.5 PROB 20.7%

Form & verdict PPG

BARAU FC · PPG 1.93

NASARAWA UNITED · PPG 0.97

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.54 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Barau FC (H) 48.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Nasarawa United (A) 23.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Barau FC face Nasarawa United in Nigeria - NPFL on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Barau FC a 48% chance, the draw 28% and Nasarawa United 24%, so Barau FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Barau FC and 0.7 for Nasarawa United (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Barau FC are averaging 1.93 points per game versus 0.97 for Nasarawa United. This match finished 3-1.

Barau FC vs Nasarawa United Prediction— Nigeria - NPFL

Match Preview & Prediction

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