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Malvern vs Werribee City Prediction— Australia - Victoria Premier League 2

Matchday 26 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 05:00

Malvern

PPG 1.83 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWLW

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Werribee City

PPG 0.92 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 68% chance

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.1%0-12.5%0-21.5%0-30.6%0-4+0.3%1 1-05.5%1-16.7%1-24.1%1-31.7%1-4+0.7%2 2-07.3%2-18.9%2-25.5%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-06.4%3-17.9%3-24.8%3-32.0%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-08.1%4+-110.0%4+-26.1%4+-32.5%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.8% — — —

Draw 19.9% — — —

Away win 22.3% — — —

Over 2.5 68.2% — — —

Over 3.5 48.2% — — —

BTTS 63.1% — — —

Home O1.5 65.8% — — —

Away O1.5 36.6% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 40 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 28%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 6.7%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 3–1 7.9%

#4 1–2 4.1%

#5 2–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Malvern2.7

Werribee City1.2

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.2% · O3.5 PROB 48.2%

Form & verdict PPG

MALVERN · PPG 1.83

WERRIBEE CITY · PPG 0.92

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

68%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.44 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Malvern (H) 57.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 19.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Werribee City (A) 22.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Malvern face Werribee City in Australia - Victoria Premier League 2 on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Malvern a 58% chance, the draw 20% and Werribee City 22%, so Malvern are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Malvern and 1.2 for Werribee City (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Malvern are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 0.92 for Werribee City. This match finished 4-1.

Malvern vs Werribee City Prediction— Australia - Victoria Premier League 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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