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Altona City vs Eastern Lions Prediction— Australia - Victoria Premier League 2

Matchday 25 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 08:15

Altona City

PPG 0.50 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLLL

3 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Eastern Lions

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLWD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.3%0-112.0%0-28.8%0-34.2%0-4+2.1%1 1-08.6%1-112.5%1-29.1%1-34.4%1-4+2.2%2 2-04.4%2-16.5%2-24.7%2-32.3%2-4+1.1%3 3-01.5%3-12.2%3-21.6%3-30.8%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.7%4+-20.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.6% 34.5% 2.90 -8.4%

Draw 24.5% 29.4% 3.40 -10.0%

Away win 43.9% 50.0% 2.00 -12.2%

Over 2.5 53.9% 61.7% 1.62 -12.7%

Over 3.5 31.6% 39.1% 2.56 -19.1%

BTTS 54.7% 63.7% 1.57 -14.1%

Home O1.5 30.6% 42.6% 2.35 -28.1%

Away O1.5 41.2% 53.5% 1.87 -23.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 40 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 28%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-4

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob54.7%

A 44% / xG 1.0-1.5 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 0–1 12.0%

#3 1–2 9.1%

#4 0–2 8.8%

#5 1–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Altona City1.0

Eastern Lions1.5

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ALTONA CITY · PPG 0.50

EASTERN LIONS · PPG 0.83

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.42, combined xG 2.49 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Altona City (H) 31.6%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -8.4%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -10.0%

Eastern Lions (A) 43.9%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -12.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Altona City face Eastern Lions in Australia - Victoria Premier League 2 on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Altona City a 32% chance, the draw 25% and Eastern Lions 44%, so Eastern Lions are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Altona City and 1.5 for Eastern Lions (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Altona City are averaging 0.50 points per game versus 0.83 for Eastern Lions. This match finished 3-4.

Altona City vs Eastern Lions Prediction— Australia - Victoria Premier League 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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