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Moreland City vs Essendon Royals SC Prediction— Australia - Victoria Premier League 2

Matchday 26 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 05:00

Moreland City

PPG 0.42 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLLD

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY O1.5

Essendon Royals SC

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWLD

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5 84% chance

xG gap -1.99 for Away, form 0.42 vs 1.67

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.8%0-12.7%0-24.6%0-35.2%0-4+10.7%1 1-01.1%1-13.8%1-26.5%1-37.5%1-4+15.3%2 2-00.8%2-12.7%2-24.7%2-35.3%2-4+10.9%3 3-00.4%3-11.3%3-22.2%3-32.5%3-4+5.2%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.6%4+-21.1%4+-31.2%4+-4+2.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.3% — — —

Draw 16.1% — — —

Away win 70.6% — — —

Over 2.5 77.1% — — —

Over 3.5 56.2% — — —

BTTS 69.2% — — —

Home O1.5 40.1% — — —

Away O1.5 84.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 40 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 28%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–3 7.5%

#2 1–2 6.5%

#3 1–4 6.4%

#4 2–2✓ 4.7%

#5 1–1 3.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Moreland City1.4

Essendon Royals SC3.4

COMBINED 4.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 77.1% · O3.5 PROB 56.2%

Form & verdict PPG

MORELAND CITY · PPG 0.42

ESSENDON ROYALS SC · PPG 1.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

84%

UPSET_VALUE

xG gap -1.99 for Away, form 0.42 vs 1.67

Win probability 1X2

Moreland City (H) 13.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 16.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Essendon Royals SC (A) 70.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Moreland City face Essendon Royals SC in Australia - Victoria Premier League 2 on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Moreland City a 13% chance, the draw 16% and Essendon Royals SC 71%, so Essendon Royals SC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Moreland City and 3.4 for Essendon Royals SC (4.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-3. There is a 77% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Moreland City are averaging 0.42 points per game versus 1.67 for Essendon Royals SC. This match finished 2-2.

Moreland City vs Essendon Royals SC Prediction— Australia - Victoria Premier League 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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