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Eastern Lions vs Kingston City Prediction— Australia - Victoria Premier League 2

Matchday 26 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 05:00

Eastern Lions

PPG 1.33 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLWD

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Kingston City

PPG 1.08 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWWD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 67% chance

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-14.6%0-23.1%0-31.4%0-4+0.7%1 1-06.7%1-19.3%1-26.4%1-32.9%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.8%2-19.4%2-26.5%2-33.0%2-4+1.4%3 3-04.6%3-16.4%3-24.4%3-32.0%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-15.2%4+-23.6%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.5% — — —

Draw 22.6% — — —

Away win 29.9% — — —

Over 2.5 67.4% — — —

Over 3.5 45.0% — — —

BTTS 63.1% — — —

Home O1.5 57.1% — — —

Away O1.5 40.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 40 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 28%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.3%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–2 6.4%

#4 2–0 6.8%

#5 2–2✓ 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Eastern Lions2.0

Kingston City1.4

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.4% · O3.5 PROB 45.0%

Form & verdict PPG

EASTERN LIONS · PPG 1.33

KINGSTON CITY · PPG 1.08

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

67%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.66 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Eastern Lions (H) 47.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Kingston City (A) 29.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Eastern Lions face Kingston City in Australia - Victoria Premier League 2 on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Eastern Lions a 48% chance, the draw 23% and Kingston City 30%, so Eastern Lions are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Eastern Lions and 1.4 for Kingston City (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Eastern Lions are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.08 for Kingston City. This match finished 2-2.

Eastern Lions vs Kingston City Prediction— Australia - Victoria Premier League 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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