Today / Portugal - Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C / Benfica Castelo Branco vs Naval 1893
Benfica Castelo Branco vs Naval 1893 Prediction— Portugal - Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C
Group C · Matchday 2 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 16:00
// Model verdict
Home Over 1.5
xG gap +0.94 - moderate Home edge
Poisson scoreline matrix
Markets vs the line
Top 5 Poisson scorelines
Expected goals
COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%
Form & verdict
BENFICA CASTELO BRANCO · PPG 1.82
NAVAL 1893 · PPG 1.32
xG gap +0.94 - moderate Home edge
Win probability
Match Preview & Prediction
Benfica Castelo Branco face Naval 1893 in Portugal - Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Benfica Castelo Branco a 53% chance, the draw 25% and Naval 1893 22%, so Benfica Castelo Branco are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Benfica Castelo Branco and 1.0 for Naval 1893 (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Benfica Castelo Branco are averaging 1.82 points per game versus 1.32 for Naval 1893. This match finished 1-4.