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Benfica Castelo Branco vs Naval 1893 Prediction— Portugal - Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C

Group C · Matchday 2 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 16:00

Benfica Castelo Branco logo
Benfica Castelo Branco
PPG 1.82 · HOME
LAST 5
WL ···
1 – 4
FULL TIME
✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5
Naval 1893 logo
Naval 1893
PPG 1.32 · AWAY
LAST 5
LW ···

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

xG gap +0.94 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-15.5%0-22.6%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-011.0%1-110.5%1-25.0%1-31.6%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.4%2-19.9%2-24.7%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.6%3-16.3%3-23.0%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-04.8%4+-14.6%4+-22.2%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 53.0%
Draw 24.6%
Away win 22.4%
Over 2.5 53.5%
Over 3.5 31.5%
BTTS 53.0%
Home O1.5 54.9%
Away O1.5 25.7%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%
#2 2–0 10.4%
#3 2–1 9.9%
#4 1–0 11.0%
#5 0–0 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Benfica Castelo Branco1.9
Naval 18931.0

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

BENFICA CASTELO BRANCO · PPG 1.82

NAVAL 1893 · PPG 1.32

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value
52%
MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.94 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Benfica Castelo Branco (H) 53.0%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Draw 24.6%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Naval 1893 (A) 22.4%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Benfica Castelo Branco face Naval 1893 in Portugal - Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Benfica Castelo Branco a 53% chance, the draw 25% and Naval 1893 22%, so Benfica Castelo Branco are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Benfica Castelo Branco and 1.0 for Naval 1893 (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Benfica Castelo Branco are averaging 1.82 points per game versus 1.32 for Naval 1893. This match finished 1-4.

PredictVantage

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